Supply Chain Management

Supply Chain Management

Simultaneous Optimization of Failure Risk Cost and Maintenance Costs Using a Hybrid Machine Learning and Genetic Algorithm Approach

Document Type : Research/ Original/ Regular Article

Authors
1 PhD Student, Industrial Management Department, Qazvin Branch, Islamic Azad University, Qazvin, Iran
2 Assistant Professor, Industrial Management Department, Qazvin Branch, Islamic Azad University, Qazvin, Iran
Abstract
This study aims to evaluate a hybrid data-driven framework for the simultaneous optimization of equipment failure risk costs and scheduled maintenance and repair expenditures, relying on the output of a superior machine learning-based failure prediction model. Characterized as an applied and data-driven investigation, this research utilizes a dataset comprising 400 weekly records spanning an eight­ year period, related to equipment maintenance and repair operations across a three-echelon coke production supply chain—from coal extraction to processing. In the first stage, the failure probability of equipment was predicted using several machine learning algorithms. Subsequently, the predictive model’s outputs were integrated as inputs into a multi-objective genetic algorithm to derive optimal schedules for preventive maintenance. The findings revealed that the gradient boosting model demonstrates superior capability in capturing complex failure patterns. Furthermore, coupling its output with the genetic algorithm enables the identification of a set of optimal trade-off solutions between mitigating failure risk and controlling maintenance costs. The resulting Pareto front indicates that intensifying maintenance efforts does not necessarily minimize total costs; rather, selecting the optimal plan is contingent upon managerial priorities and organizational risk tolerance. Overall, this research demonstrates that integrating machine learning-based failure prediction with multi-objective optimization can effectively elevate maintenance decision-making from a reactive paradigm to a proactive and intelligent level.
Keywords
Subjects

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Volume 28, Issue 91 - Serial Number 91
Serial number 91. Summer 2026
Summer 2026
Pages 101-117

  • Receive Date 07 February 2026
  • Revise Date 28 June 2026
  • Accept Date 27 August 2026
  • Publish Date 16 September 2026